Spatio-Temporal Modeling and Simulation of Land­ use/Land-cover Change Detection using RS/GIS A Case Study of Lahore District

Azhar Ali Taj,Murtaza Asghar Bukhari, Javed Iqbal

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change detection process integrated with modeling and forecasting of landscape patterns play important role in evaluation of manmade alterations on natural resources. In the last two decades, Lahore District had experienced a massive urban expansion causing significant landscape changes. The objectives of the study were to accurately extract temporal land-use/ land-cover patterns and simulate it for the year 2020. The past, current and expected future land-use dynamics were simulated with stochastic models i.e. Cellular Automata (CA) and Markov Chain analysis (CA_Markov). Land-use patterns were extracted through maximum likelihood classification technique for temporal analysis. Population densities, Land Consumption Ratio (LCR) and Land Absorption Co-efficient (LAC) were established to provide quantitative inspection. The results show a mpid increase of about 2.7% and 3.3 % in built-up area from 1992 to 2000 and 2000 to 2009 respectively. Probabilistic simulation approaches showed that there was 20 %, 16 % and 40% probability of barren land, mixed class and river bed to be converted into built-up area by 2020, respectively. Simulated landscape patterns show an increase of 118.2 km1in built-up area with a 6.5 %of the total increase. Land Consumption Ratio (LCR) and Land Absorption Coefficient (LAC) values for the years 1992 to 2020 ranged from 0.003 to 0.004 which together with statistical validation of 2.64 % areal growth per annum confirms a rapid increase in built up area over time.The methodology developed in this study could be applied in planning and development studies for mega cities in Pakistan and other developing countries around the world.